With the Central Statistical Organisation estimates putting India's economic growth rate at 8.7 per cent for the current financial year, spotlight has turned on GDP forecasts by various other agencies.
With rising credit demand, cleaner balance sheets, and renewed investor confidence, banks are positioned at the forefront of the market rally. From major players like ICICI and HDFC to broader policy shifts, there's much driving this momentum.
With rising credit demand, cleaner balance sheets, and renewed investor confidence, banks are positioned at the forefront of the market rally. From major players like ICICI and HDFC to broader policy shifts, there's much driving this momentum.
With rising credit demand, cleaner balance sheets, and renewed investor confidence, banks are positioned at the forefront of the market rally. From major players like ICICI and HDFC to broader policy shifts, there's much driving this momentum.
The pre-budget Economic Survey, which is tabled in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget to present the state of the economy and suggest policy prescriptions, quite often misses on the GDP forecast, sometimes by a significant margin. This time, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey for 2021-22 in the Lok Sabha on Monday soon after the President's address to both Houses of Parliament. She will present the Union Budget for the next financial year beginning April 1, 2022, on Tuesday.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
Among the private banking majors ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were down 0.2%-0.5% each.
Here are the key decisions announced by the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday.
RBI has retained the GDP forecast at 8.5 per cent for 2007-08; inflation kept close to 5 per cent this year.
Three months down the line, the National Council of Applied Economic Research has revised its forecast for the gross domestic product growth rate this fiscal by 0.3 per cent to 5.83 per cent due to better prospects in industrial outlook.
The North-West is expected to be hit the most.
Among the Sensex firms, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC and L&T were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, BEL, Adani Ports, State Bank of India, Trent, HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
Recent estimates show that foodgrain production in 2016-17 has touched a new record of 273.4 million tonnes or 8.7 per cent higher as compared to last year.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
Moody's said the government will face challenges in achieving its deficit target for the fiscal year ending March 2021, amid persistent structural and cyclical headwinds to growth.
The Indian services sector growth touched a ten-month high in June aided by robust expansion in international sales and job creation, amid positive demand trends and ongoing improvement in sales, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 58.8 in May to 60.4 in June, driven by sharp upturn in new business orders.
Domestic ratings agency Icra on Monday forecast a 2 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, and a 7.3 per cent contraction for the full fiscal year. From a GVA or gross value added perspective, the agency pegs Q4 growth at 3 per cent and the full year contraction at 6.3 per cent. According to the agency, the 2 per cent projected GDP growth will help the economy avoid a double-dip recession as indicated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) for Q4. Icra's projection is better than the 8 per cent contraction forecast by the NSO as it sees Q4 growth at only 1.1 per cent.
Economic think-tank NCAER on Wednesday warned that lower agriculture growth would pull down average annual GDP growth to 6.7 per cent during 2002-07, as against the targeted 8.1 per cent
Rating agency Crisil has revised downwards the Indian GDP growth forecast for FY09 to 8.1 per cent, from the earlier 8.5 per cent, in view of the high inflationary conditions, interest rate and global growth outlook.However, despite the growth deceleration, Crisil expects inflation to stabilise at an average 5.5 per cent in 2008-09 in a normal monsoon scenario, the agency said.
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Prime Minister's key economic advisor C Rangarajan on Friday lowered the growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent projected earlier and listed out host of measures, including further liberalisation of FDI norms to improve economic condition.
India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Analysts interpret this as an indication that a corporate profit upcycle is in progress, with projections suggesting that this share could exceed 8 per cent within the next five years, driven by bullish earnings growth expectations. "We believe we are only halfway through a profit cycle, with the profit share in GDP rising from a low of 2 per cent in 2020 to about 5 per cent currently, and likely heading to 8 per cent in the coming four to five years. "This implies about 20 per cent compounding of earnings growth. "Underscoring this forecast is the start of a new private capex cycle, under-geared balance sheets, a healthy banking system, lower corporate tax rates, improving terms of trade, and structural consumption demand outlook albeit somewhat offset by likely consolidation in government deficit," said Ridham Desai, managing director, head of research, Morgan Stanley India in a note.
Ahluwalia's assessment of economic growth is marginally higher than 6.3 per cent projected by the Commission earlier.
A British brokerage on Tuesday cut India's FY22 GDP growth estimate by a sharp 0.80 per cent to 9.2 per cent, saying the economic impact of the second wave of infections has been deeper than initially expected. Barclays chief India economist Rahul Bajoria also mentioned the slow pace of vaccinations in the country and the rolling lockdowns across many states for the estimate. It can be noted that last month has seen a slew of similar forecasts from analysts, even as the RBI maintained its estimate of a 10.5 per cent growth in real GDP.
It had upped India's rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed its rating outlook to 'stable' from 'positive', saying the reforms would help stabilise rising levels of debt.
The Indian economy is likely to benefit from tailwinds from both monetary and fiscal policy in the coming month
Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
India's August industrial output rose just 0.4 per cent compared with 2.4 per cent estimated in a Reuters poll.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
Credit rating agency ICRA on Tuesday lowered economic growth projection for the Indian economy to 6.3 per cent this fiscal from its earlier forecast of 6.5-6.7 per cent due to an expected fall in farm output. \n
A day after global brokerage firm Macquarie painted a rosy picture of the Indian economy and raised its target level for the stock indices for the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs said India is set to overtake China and become the fastest-growing emerging market during 2016-18.
Economic think-tank NCAER has revised its projections for economic growth to 7.9 per cent for 2006-07, compared to 7.7 per cent made in April due to likely higher growth in industry and services sectors.
The World Bank on Thursday forecast a 6.7 per cent growth rate for India by next fiscal as exports and private investment are projected to strengthen and provide a boost to growth.
IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.
IMF cut its 2016 global growth forecast for the fourth time in the past year to 3.2 per cent, citing China's slowdown.
The economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research on Thursday revised downward marginally India's economic growth to 6.62 per cent due to deceleration in farm output in 2004 even as fiscal deficit was slated to shrink to 4.52 per
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
The government had pegged GDP growth around nine per cent in the Budget for 2011-12.
India retains the tag of the fastest growing country among the world's major emerging economies
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
Some analysts argue that Beijing has been too cautious in lowering rates and freeing up cash in the banking system, keeping real interest rates too high given low returns on investment.
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